By Peter Martínez, PhD
The 2024 election is certain to go down in the history books, and Latinos are destined to play a significant role when November comes around. Approximately 36 million Latinos across the United States will be eligible to vote this year, compared to just over 34 million in the 2020 election. To put this growth in context, there were only 13 million eligible Latino voters in 2000. Out of the 36 million Latinos, about 7 million are potential Texas voters, which could comprise nearly 40 percent of Texas’ electorate if voter turnout is high in the Texas Latino community. (Texas Secratary of State 2024) (Jens Manuel Krogstad 2024). While Latinos of Mexican descent in Texas have favored Democrat candidates in the past, recent history and current polls tell us that the Mexican American vote cannot be taken for granted. ]
In 2016, in a losing effort, Hillary Clinton successfully took 66 percent of the Latino votes across the nation to Trump’s 28 percent, at a time when Latinos made up 10 percent of the electorate. (Pew Research Center 2018) Four years later, Joe Biden took a noticeably smaller 59 percent of the Latino vote versus 38 percent for Trump, as Biden gained the presidency. Meanwhile, the black vote went from 91 percent to 92 percent for the Democratic candidates in 2016 and 2020 respectively, reflecting little change compared the slight swing to the political right by Latinos in 2020. (Ruth Igielnik 2021) Indeed, much attention was given to this Latino shift. Regardless of political affiliation, this could be excellent news for Latinos in the near and distant future. With growing numbers and increasing political power, combined with a less predictive nature as a population, Latinos are forcing political figures to pay attention to issues that are important to themselves and their families.
In fact, in his challenge to unseat incumbent Senator Ted Cruz, Democrat Colin Allred has made an overt effort to attract Latino voters in Texas by airing Spanish-language ads that appeal to family upbringing, border security, and Social Security as early as this past May. (Dearman 2024) Not to be outdone, Cruz’s campaign recently announced that it was spending $4.4 million on advertising, text messages, and phone calls in effort to specifically target Latinos in Texas. The first advertisement adopted a corrido format to enhance its appeal to a Mexican ethnic population. (Kight 2024) This contest is heating up as election day nears. Earlier this month, the University of Houston released a survey indicating the senate race is indeed tightly contested, with Cruz holding a slim three-point lead among all likely voters, 47% to 44%, although Latino likely voters favor Allred by a margin of 47 percent to 39 percent. (Hobby School of Public Affairs 2024) Despite the lead Allred holds over Cruz among Latino voters, Latinos still favored Trump over Biden by a margin of 45 percent to 41 percent. (University of Houston 2024) Soon after Biden withdrew from the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive nominee going into next month’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Latinos in Texas and across the country may have to reassess their choices for president.
In trying to evaluate why or how Latinos choose their candidates, the Pew Research Center regularly attempts to gauge how Latinos view the Democratic and Republican parties. Historically, Latinos have viewed the Democratic party as the party that is more concerned about them and more caring for their needs, but recent history indicates that might be changing a little. (Minushkin 2008) In preparation for the 2022 midterm election, the Pew Research Center asked Latinos how much the Democratic and Republicans “really care” about them. At that time, 63 percent of respondents claimed the Democratic Party “really cared” about them while only 34 percent of Latinos surveyed believed the Republican Party “really cared.” (Jens Manuel Krogstad 2022) On the other hand, earlier this month another survey indicated 54 percent of Latinos believed the Democratic Party cares about “people like them,” reflecting a 9 percentage point drop from two years earlier, while the Republican Party saw a slight increase to 40 percent. (Luis Noe-Bustamante 2024) Clearly, results from the survey indicate that Latinos, overall, view the Democratic Party as more caring toward the Latino population, but the edge is not as great as it was previously, and neither party is truly seen as “the party” for Latinos.
While the 2024 election year has been dramatic and memorable, the future of Texas and the United States are yet-to-be-seen. Clearly, this nation must focus on the rapidly growing Latino population in Texas and across the country. If the Latino population has become significant enough to truly affect election results, then Latinos, by definition, have gained the power to run this great state and this great country.
